Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios

Abstract

Ecosystem-based management requires predictive models of ecosystem dynamics. There are typically insufficient empirical data available to parameterise these complex models, and so decision-makers commonly rely on beliefs elicited from experts. However, such expert beliefs are necessarily limited because (i) only a small proportion of ecosystem components and dynamics have been observed; (ii) uncertainty about ecosystem dynamics can result in contradictory expert judgements and (iii) elicitation time and resources are limited. We use an ensemble of dynamic ecosystem models to extrapolate a limited set of stated expert beliefs into a wider range of revealed beliefs about how the ecosystem will..